The Cubs Should Sign an Old Reliever
The Cubs are still looking for relief help, and two of the best options left on the market pitched for the same team in 2024 and will be over 37 years old in 2025. Kirby Yates (entering his age 38 season) and David Robertson (entering his age 40 season) were two of the game’s best relievers last year for the Rangers, and their age and ninth-inning experience make them good fits for the Cubs.
It’s not just the surface stats that stand out for either. Below are a variety of stats for both relievers, followed by their ranks in each among relievers who threw 40 or more innings.
| IP | ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | K-BB% | fWAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Yates | 61 2/3 | 1.17 | 1.81 | 2.50 | 3.12 | 24.1 | 1.9 |
| David Robertson | 72.0 | 3.00 | 3.22 | 2.65 | 2.88 | 24.3 | 1.9 |
| ERA | xERA1 | FIP | xFIP | K-BB% | fWAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Yates | 2nd | 2nd | 16th | 28th | 20th | 8th |
| David Robertson | 54th | 58th | 25th | 18th | 19th | 9th |
Yates was one of the best relievers in baseball by any measure, but he stands out in both real results and contact suppression. Robertson’s numbers aren’t quite as impressive, especially his ERA, but the underlying numbers suggest he was still quite good. Despite their ages, neither pitcher has shown signs of velocity decline (Robertson is actually throwing a bit harder than he did with the Cubs), and both were able to appear in more games than any Cubs reliever this year.
We know the Cubs haven’t liked signing relievers to long deals, and neither Robertson nor Yates figures to get more than two years (and Robertson likely just one) at this point in their careers. The Cubs reportedly had interest in Yates earlier in the offseason, and I’d think they’d be open to a reunion with Robertson.
Of course, there’s a reason these pitchers should be available for one-year commitments. You never know when age will catch up to a pitcher, and neither throws especially hard to begin with. Yates has had a few elite seasons, but this was his first since 2019, and he’s had a high walk rate since then. Robertson’s walk rate was also high, and although relievers can survive with high walk rates (Tanner Scott’s was higher than both and he’s the best reliever on the market), it decreases the margin for error.
It would be nice if the Cubs could pay an elite reliever who’s a sure thing, but I don’t think there is such a thing. Only two of the top 15 relievers by FIP last year were acquired in free agency. Tanner Scott, the best reliever on the market, has been excellent the last two seasons, but those are the only two seasons he’s thrown more than 30 innings with an ERA under 4.00. Jeff Hoffman is probably the second-best reliever left (and I’d be interested in the Cubs signing him as a reliever or a starter), and he has two seasons with an ERA under 3.80 or a FIP under 4.00. Relievers are volatile, and although it hasn’t always worked out for the whole season the last couple of years, I think the Cubs’ strategy in avoiding large multi-year deals in the pen is sound. Assuming they want to continue with this plan, Robertson and Yates would be excellent targets for one-year deals.
- xERA rank is among all qualified pitchers, not just relievers. ↩︎