Cub of Coffee 5/5/24: Cubs 5, Brewers 0

Despite starting the weekend with a rough loss, the Cubs bounced back to win the first series of the year between what look to be the two best teams in the NL Central. The season series feels like it will be tight, so it's good to get wins while you can.

Starting pitching strength
Neither Justin Steele or Shōta Imanaga pitched in this series, but the Brewers were held scoreless by Cubs starters, who combined to allow just 9 hits and 7 walks in 18 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts. The Cubs' rotation has carried the team during this time without Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, despite injuries to Justin Steele and ineffectiveness from Kyle Hendricks. The extent of Javier Assad's success still surprises me, but it's hard to argue against at this point. For something which had a lot of questions entering the year and got off to an uneven start, the starting rotation has been the strength of this team.

Christopher Morel bounces back
Christopher Morel's slump was never quite as bad as it looked. He was still not swinging and missing as much as he did last year, and still walking more. In the last week or so, however, Morel's power has shown back up with four home runs. Although his home run streak came to an end today, Morel is back up to a 112 wRC+ after 3 walks and a hit. His expected wOBA suggests he has deserved better results than he's gotten this year as well. Morel had an incredibly rough start at third base this year defensively, but he's improved enough to be playable there. Despite what felt like a rough slump, Morel has been a solid big league position player, exactly what the Cubs needed.

Daniel Palencia has a high ceiling
Daniel Palencia has now appeared in 6 games for the Cubs this season, 3 since returning from AAA. Before being optioned a second time, Palencia's four-seam fastball averaged 96.9, 96.8, and 95.9 MPH. In the three games since returning, 98.7, 99.2, and 99.5 MPH. He hasn't walked a batter in his three most recent outings (though he did hit one), and he's struck out six. Palencia looks like a different pitcher with two extra miles per hour on his pitches, and while he can still lose command, his fastball looks like it plays anywhere in the zone at that velocity. If he can string together a few more outings where he limits walks, I wouldn't be surprised if he works his way into higher leverage innings.

The Cubs welcome the Padres tomorrow with Justin Steele's second start of the year. It wouldn't be surprising if Steele is a little rusty, but getting him back should be a big help. He'll be going up against former Cubs ace Yu Darvish. The Padres feel like they're in a similar talent range as the Cubs, so it should be a good series.