Cub of Coffee 5/4/24: Cubs 6, Brewers 5

Another close game today helped demonstrate two pitching trends from the last few weeks.

The Cubs were right about starter depth
Despite their ace pitching in one game so far this season and Kyle Hendricks having an ERA of 12, the Cubs' rotation has the fifth lowest ERA in baseball. They also have the sixth best FIP and the fifth most fWAR. Cubs starters have only pitched the seventeenth most innings, and their average fastball velocity is 25th in the league, but they've gotten great results.

The Cubs were wrong about bullpen depth
Cubs relievers are 24th in baseball in ERA and FIP. They're tied for second in blown saves with four other teams, and tied for the league lead in wild pitches. They've also pitched the fourth most innings. The Cubs have really only had one reliever who has been healthy and reliable all year, and while Mark Leiter Jr. has been nearly flawless, he can't pitch every game. Because injuries have forced Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski into the rotation, the Cubs' bullpen depth has been exposed. Adbert Alzolay has four losses and has pitched himself out of high leverage situations. Daniel Palencia and Luke Little have shown flashes, but have combined for 14 walks and 3 hit by pitches against 17 strikeouts. Jose Cuas had to be optioned to AAA to work on some things. Héctor Neris has established himself as the team's closer by default, despite walking the third highest rate of batters of any reliever who has thrown at least ten innings. The bullpen needs help desperately, and luckily help could be on the way.

Who goes to the bullpen?
With Justin Steele scheduled to come back on Monday, the Cubs have a decision to make about who to move to the bullpen. With Jordan Wicks out (and having more of a starter's repertoire anyway), they have three main options: Javier Assad, Ben Brown, or Hayden Wesneski. The easiest answer would be to move the last man into the rotation out of it first, which would mean putting Wesneski back into a reliever role. However, Wesneski is coming off perhaps the best start of his career. Assad has also pitched well as a starter and has a career ERA of 2.87 (with better peripheral stats this year). Instead, the best option seems to be moving Ben Brown to the bullpen. Brown has been a solid starter, but he isn't stretched out to stay in the rotation for a full season. He threw 92.2 innings last year, while Assad threw 124 and Wesneski 109.1. Brown is also the hardest thrower of the three and has the least diverse pitch mix, which means he may be able to thrive in a role where he can turn the order over one time at max effort. We can't expect Ben Brown to save the bullpen or be a lockdown reliever right away. However, he may be able to provide some stabilization to a part of the team that lacks it right now.

The Cubs have an opportunity to win the series against the Brewers tomorrow, but it will be tough to get to Freddy Peralta. I'm mostly looking forward to watching Justin Steele and Shōta Imanaga pitch against the Padres this week.