Cub of Coffee 5/19/24: Cubs 2, Pirates 3

That was a rough series. Luckily, the Cubs remain firmly in the second Wild Card spot.

Ben Brown's fastball problem
Ben Brown's line today looks great, with three strikeouts and just one walk in two innings of work. Unfortunately, the first two batters he faced both barreled the ball, once for a flyout and once for a ground rule double. Both of those were off of relatively well-located fastballs toward the top of the strike zone. Brown did get the next batter looking at a fastball, but all the other outs came on his curveball. I'm not trying to take anything away from Brown, who has been a productive member of the pitching staff as a rookie, and has been moved between roles. For him to become a good starter or a dominant reliever, though, he'll need to refine his command or add another pitch to keep hitters off his fastball.

The stolen base issue
The Cubs allowed four stolen bases today. It has seemed like they've had trouble controlling runners all year, although they've been around average as a team. When comparing the Cubs' two catchers in terms of stolen base prevention, I was surprised to see that Yan Gomes rated positively, while Miguel Amaya did not (Amaya has been the better blocker and framer this year). Luckily, Baseball Savant breaks down stolen base prevention into several parts. Despite Amaya having Tommy John surgery, he has a stronger arm than Gomes, who has the second slowest arm strength among catchers this year. Both Amaya and Gomes have similar, below-average pop times as well. The difference is in the exchange time--while Amaya is below average there as well, Gomes has had the quickest exchange time in baseball. Amaya was quicker last year, so hopefully he can get back there while maintaining his framing.

Defense continues to struggle
Before today, the Cubs had the 27th best defense in baseball according to Outs Above Average. Last year, they were tied for the best in baseball. Christopher Morel's time at third base has been mixed at best (Statcast has him as the second worst defender this year), and Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson were off to slow starts with the glove compared to their usual selves. With their starting middle infield out, the defense took a turn for the worse this week, although Miles Mastrobuoni did his best Dansby Swanson impression at times. The Cubs need to get healthy, and they need their star middle infield to get back to their Gold Glove levels.

The Cubs will face the Braves again for the second time in two weeks. Luckily, Reynaldo López and Chris Sale are both pitching tomorrow in a double header. They'll need to take advantage of easier pitching matchups to give their pitchers some margin.