Cub of Coffee 5/15/24: Cubs 7, Braves 1
Taking one game in Atlanta is all the Cubs needed, and they managed to do just that in fairly relaxing fashion last night.
Ben Brown has been hit hard
Ben Brown has been impressive in his time in the majors so far. He’s been able to move between long relief and starting roles, and he’s provided stability in both. One thing came up when I was looking at his Statcast numbers, though: when hitters make contact with Brown’s pitches, they’re hitting them hard. He has allowed the second highest hard-hit rate and second highest average exit velocity in baseball this year. Most of this is due to Brown’s fastball: the hard-hit rate against his fastball is the highest of any pitcher. Brown is still getting good results because that contact isn’t all in the air, and his curveball has been great, but it’s something to monitor as the season goes on.
Javier Assad continues to perform
After what was likely his best start of the year (6IP 4H 0R 1BB 7K against one of the best lineups in the league), Javier Assad’s season line is down to a 1.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/3.91 xFIP. He’s been the Cubs’ second-best pitcher and has thrown the most innings on the team. It still feels like there is some regression coming, but Assad keeps pitching well every time out. What a success story for him and the Cubs.
Tyson Miller could be the new Yency Almonte
When the Cubs traded Jake Slaughter for Tyson Miller on Monday, some may have seen him as bullpen filler. Instead, I think he could fill a role similar to Yency Almonte’s. The righty, acquired in the Michael Busch trade, had been quietly solid in middle relief after a rough start to his Cubs tenure. Unfortunately, he was placed on the injured list with a shoulder injury. It’s not fair to expect a recently-DFAd reliever to replace one of the more trustworthy relievers in the bullpen right away. Miller has a similar profile to Almonte, however, in that he’s a right-handed reliever who mostly throws a sweeper. He has bounced around the league since the Cubs DFAd him in 2021, but he had found some early success with the Mariners, striking out 26.7% of the batters he faced while walking just 2.2% for a 3.09 ERA. The main difference in Miller’s pitch mix since last year is that he added more sweep to his slider, which gives him a strikeout pitch against righties. I wouldn’t want Miller to face tough lefties, but if Counsell can identify pockets of right-handed hitters like he has for Almonte and Hayden Wesneski, Miller could find some success in his second stint with the Cubs.
It’s unfortunate that the Brewers faced the Pirates in between their two series with the Cubs, so the Cubs have to face three of the Pirates’ best four starters this weekend after facing their two best the weekend before. The Cubs looked better than expected against Jared Jones. Now we’ll see which team fares better seeing many of the same pitchers a second time in less than a week. A Justin Steele bounce-back would go a long way to starting the series off in a good way.