Cub of Coffee 5/12/24: Cubs 5, Pirates 4
The Cubs needed that win today after last night’s weirdness and a three-game set against Atlanta starting Monday.
Adbert Alzolay is searching
Despite getting the save, Adbert Alzolay allowed another two runs. Alzolay pitched a scoreless ninth on Friday, but he gave up two barrels in the process. He allowed another today to Connor Joe, and has now allowed the second most barrels per plate appearance of any pitcher with at least 50 batted ball events, and has already allowed nine barrels this year, just one fewer than he allowed all of last season. It’s hard to blame Counsell for using him in the tenth inning, since it doesn’t seem like the Cubs had any other pitchers available today. I’m not entirely sure what the fix is, but at this point, it’s just hard to watch—Alzolay seems like a good person and he was so good for much of last year.
Patrick Wisdom knows his role
Patrick Wisdom is up to a 212 wRC+ in 11 games this year. He definitely won’t keep hitting at that level all year, but Wisdom has been quite good in a matchup-protected role for a while now. He has a 135 wRC+ since July 1st, 2023, which is right between Trea Turner and J.D. Martinez over that time span. Of course, Wisdom has 100 fewer plate appearances than Martinez, and 300 fewer than Turner. Wisdom isn’t an everyday player, but he’s excelled in the role that David Ross and now Craig Counsell have identified for him. The Cubs have put him in a position to succeed, and getting Wisdom’s level of production from a part time player is a hallmark of good teams.
Nico Hoerner’s offense
From 2021-2022, Nico Hoerner was an excellent player. He was worth 8.6 fWAR, splitting time across both middle infield spots. Hoerner’s defense and baserunning made him a borderline All Star, combined with his slightly above average offensive production. This year, Hoerner has rated surprisingly poorly at both second base and shortstop by OAA and DRS. He’s been a positive baserunner, but he’s only stolen 5 bases after stealing 43 last year. These trends would be alarming, but Hoerner is having a career year as a hitter. After getting a hit and walking three times today, he’s slashing .275/.364/.399 on the season for a 122 wRC+, 16 points higher than his previous high mark for a season in both 2021 and 2022. He’s walking more than he did the last two years and striking out at a career-low rate. It’s hard to see why this is the case in the plate discipline data, so it may regress back to career norms, but I would think Hoerner’s defense and base running will improve as well since he had been elite at both. If he can maintain a 115 wRC+ and get his defense back to normal, it would be a real step forward for an important part of this Cubs team.
It’s good that the Cubs held on for that win, as they’ll face three good starting pitchers and a scary lineup where their playoff hopes ended last year. If they could get one win in the series in Atlanta and win their next series against the Pirates, I’d take it.