Cub of Coffee 5/10/24: Cubs 7, Pirates 2

That game went better than I expected, as the Cubs were able to beat up on two pitchers who have been very good this year.

Cody Bellinger is back
I went into the season curious to see if Cody Bellinger could repeat his offense from last year, and after a rough start to the year he got hurt just as he was heating up. With four hits (including an impressive homer) last night, Bellinger is hitting .538/.538/1.154 in his three games since coming back from the injured list. That performance raised his season line to .268/.345/.536 for a 141 wRC+. Bellinger has walked more than last year while striking out at the same rate, and while he's still outperforming his expected stats, those have improved since last season as well. If there's one nit to pick, both OAA and DRS have Bellinger as a negative defender in center field this season. It's possible this is early season variance, though DRS had him as a poor center fielder last year as well. However, there were more questions about Bellinger as a hitter, and he's been better than I expected.

Ben Brown's whiffs
Ben Brown came into this game in relief following a less efficient than usual Javier Assad and shut the Pirates down. He allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out six batters. Brown's curveball was especially impressive, netting 11 whiffs on 13 swings. He got swings and misses on 31.6% of the pitches he threw last night, far more than his previous high of 22.2%. That rate was the highest of any Cub relief outing consisting of at least 25 pitches since Carl Edwards Jr. in 2017. Brown is still giving up a lot of hard contact, but he has an ability to shut down a lineup that many Cubs pitchers don't. It will be worth watching how they utilize him for the rest of the season--it feels like he'll be important to this pitching staff no matter what role he settles in to this year.

Michael Busch's success
Michael Busch got off to an unsustainably hot start, including a stretch of home runs in five consecutive games. Since then, he has just a 53 wRC+ with a 41% strikeout rate. Busch will need to change the trends of his walk rate and strikeout rate, but on the season he still has a 121 wRC+, and because he's played in almost every game he's been the Cubs' second most valuable position player. Busch's plate appearances haven't been pretty for a while now, but the season-long production is still in a good place, and I think he'll be able to get out of this slump. He's still gotten better results than Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Matt Olson have this year. It hasn't been without its low points, but Busch has performed like a solid big-leaguer, and that's not something to take for granted, especially from a rookie.

The Cubs offense will once again have to step up against a tough pitcher in Paul Skenes, making his major league debut. It would be great if this game goes the way the previous one did.