Cub of Coffee 4/25/24: Cubs 3, Astros 1

This was a much more fun series than the last one.

Javier Assad might just be good
Javier Assad has a 2.00 ERA on the season, with a 3.30 FIP and 4.01 xFIP. He was a good story with unsustainable results in 2022, but he pitched very well last year in every role a pitcher can have. This year, he's striking out the most batters of his career. Assad has increased his four-seamer usage, so now he's throwing a sinker, cutter, and four-seamer all between 25%-30% of the time and it seems to be working, as he has one of the lowest hard hit rates allowed in baseball. Watching Assad pitch is a weird experience, since he walks more batters than you'd expect for a pitcher with a contact-manager profile. Still, the lack of hard contact and the slight uptick in strikeouts means this version of Assad could be here to stay.

Mike Tauchman walks and slugs
Mike Tauchman has been thrust into an everyday role with injuries to Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, and he's responded by being the Cubs best hitter after this homestand. He's hitting .298/.437/.491 with the highest walk rate in the National League, good for a 164 wRC+. Tauchman was a great role-player last year, and ideally that's what he would be this year, but the injuries have forced him into a bigger role and he's held up well. He currently has the lowest strikeout rate, highest walk rate, and second-highest slugging percentage of his career. Last year, Tauchman's production was largely on-base driven, but he's hitting the ball well to start this season. This won't continue to this extent for the full season, but the Cubs need Tauchman to hold the fort while waiting for Suzuki and Bellinger to return.

Héctor Neris, new closer
Héctor Neris has gotten it done in his two appearances since Adbert Alzolay was taken out of the closer roles, but it hasn't been easy in either. His velocity was up a little today, but he's walked more batters than he's struck out this year. Neris has the sixth highest walk rate of any pitcher who has thrown at least five innings this season. It's definitely possible that Neris turns it around this season, and the Cubs don't really have any better options for the closer role, but if he keeps pitching like he has been so far, his surface stats will decline.

The Red Sox don't have a great record, and they're dealing with a lot of injuries, but this will still be a tough series since their pitching staff has the lowest ERA in baseball.