Cub of Coffee 4/21/24: Cubs 3, Marlins 6

It's hard to sweep a four-game series, but a third of the Marlins' wins this year coming against the Cubs doesn't feel great.

Reliever roles
Craig Counsell mentioned before the game that Adbert Alzolay would not get the save opportunity if one arose today, and he was instead deployed against the bottom half of the Marlins lineup. He retired the three hitters he faced in order and looked fine doing so against weak competition (the OPS of the hitters he faced: .567, .702, .542). It's good to see that he won't get blown up every outing, but clearly there's some things that he still needs to work on. In the meantime, the Cubs don't have any obvious alternatives. Héctor Neris has experience, but he's walked as many batters as he's struck out. Luke Little and Daniel Palencia have the same issues albeit with better stuff (and less experience). Yency Almonte has been fine, but wild and is best suited to getting out right-handed hitters. Mark Leiter Jr. has been the Cubs' best reliever, but it's hard to take him out of the fireman role. Drew Smyly has been pretty reliable, but is best used in a multi-inning role. If I had to guess, the Cubs will probably continue to use Leiter against the best pocket of left-handed hitters. If that's not in the ninth inning, they may rely on Neris' experience in the role and hope his numbers improve. The alternative is asking a lot out of Keegan Thompson, who did get the ninth today but has limited experience going on back-to-back days, or Ben Brown, who has great stuff but may be better in a multi-inning role. There isn't an obvious solution to this problem, so Craig Counsell will have to live up to his reputation as a tactician for the team to make it through this stretch until roles can become more clear.

Where do the hits come from?
With Seiya Suzuki out for an extended period and Ian Happ out for these three games, the Cubs offense hasn't looked great. On the season, they're 12th in baseball in wRC+, but without Suzuki they're missing their best hitter. Cody Bellinger has heated up recently, but he's still hit below league average this year. Dansby Swanson and Christopher Morel both got off to hot starts, but they both struck out twice today. It feels like Morel has deserved better given the quality of his contact, but he's down to a 74 wRC+. I think that will turn around, but. On the other hand, Michael Busch has been spectacular, Nico Hoerner has heated up, and the Cubs have gotten good production from Mike Tauchman, Garrett Cooper, and (in a very small sample) Alexander Canario in part-time roles. Miguel Amaya has also been good for a catcher, although I'm a little worried about how Yan Gomes has looked this year. The pieces for a good offense are here, but with Suzuki out, they'll need more from three of their top six hitters to get there.

Fielding is hard, apparently
The Cubs were the seventh best defensive team in baseball last year by Statcast's OAA metric. They came into today 15th. While Morel got off to a bad start at third base, his numbers have improved, and he hasn't actually rated as the team's worst defender. The sample size on these is still small, but Statcast has not liked Nick Madrigal's defense (he's at -2 OAA after having 9 last year). Despite winning a gold glove last year, the advanced metrics didn't like Ian Happ's defense in left field, and that has continued early in this year. The biggest drop off may be Dansby Swanson, who still grades out positively by OAA but not as well as he did last year, when Statcast had him as the best defensive shortstop in baseball. It stands out more because we expect him to make tough plays, but that definitely matches the eye test (he's been a pretty good shortstop, not one of the best). He has to improve, and the Cubs defense as a whole has to improve for them to weather the injuries to some of their best players.

The Cubs next opponent is the Astros, who are off to a 7-16 start which has seen their playoff odds on FanGraphs to drop from 85.9% to 54.7%. I still think they're not as bad as 7-16, so it's nice that the Cubs have an opportunity to play them while they're not playing well. Hopefully they can take advantage before heading to Boston to face the weird but good Red Sox next weekend.