Cub of Coffee 4/13/24: Cubs 4, Mariners 1

That was a nice, relatively easy win. I'd write about Michael Busch continuing to hit, Morel's improved defense, or Imanaga's solid outing, but those are self-explanatory. Instead, I'm going to dig into the bullpen and see who I'm concerned about and who's on the rise.

Héctor Neris' velocity
Despite being effective in some high-leverage appearances, Héctor Neris hasn't looked sharp. His velocity on his three most-used pitches is down between 0.7 and 1.3 MPH from last year, and 2.3 to 3.5 MPH from 2022. It's not steadily increasing throughout the season, either. Additionally, Neris' splitter is getting less vertical movement than in previous years. It seems like he has been a great veteran presence in the bullpen, but his performance has been concerning. It's a tiny sample, but Neris' strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up from last year, and both were already trending in the wrong direction last year. I'm not sure that the Cubs have an easy alternative here, though. The ideal version of Neris is frequently available and is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Julian Merryweather also filled this role, but with his injury the Cubs are very reliant on Neris regaining his previous form.

Yency Almonte's hot streak
It was interesting to see Yency Almonte work his way into a leverage spot yesterday. Similar to Neris, Yency Almonte's velocity is down around 2 MPH from last year, and the start to his season hasn't been great. He's looked more effective recently, though, with two strikeouts and no walks in each of his last four outings. It's possible this is due to match ups, but Almonte has increased his sweeper usage in each successive appearance this year. Almonte could continue to climb the bullpen ladder, but his usage may have to be matchup-dependent as his mix is heavily oriented toward getting right-handed hitters out. Perhaps to address this, it looks like the Cubs have swapped out his changeup for his cutter as a pitch against lefties. If the cutter is effective, he could slot into Julian Merryweather's role as a higher-leverage, more platoon-neutral reliever.

Who's the Set-Up Man?
If Neris continues to look rough, the Cubs may need to figure out who their set-up man is. The team's two best relievers this year have been Mark Leiter Jr. and Drew Smyly. Both are probably more effective against left-handers, and Leiter has been used in a fireman role while Smyly is one of a couple relievers in the bullpen capable of giving the team some length. Almonte has improved, but he's better suited for pockets of right-handed hitters. Adbert Alzolay hasn't been as good as he was last year, but there's no clear candidate to bump him down to the eighth inning.

A potential solution may emerge as Jameson Taillon appears to be on the verge of a return to the rotation. This would give the Cubs the option to move Ben Brown into a relief role. He can either provide length, which would allow more flexibility in the deployment of Smyly, or he could provide some more split-neutral relief. In theory, Brown has the vertically-oriented pitch mix that could reduce the damage lefties do off of him. He also has the high-velocity fastball and power breaking ball typical of late-inning relievers. I think Brown could still be a good major league starter, but he may be able to fill a role the Cubs are missing right now and be quite good at it.

Getting this one in right before the game today. Luis Castillo is a better pitcher than Javier Assad, but their season lines won't reflect that yet. Hopefully that will remain true for another day.