Cub of Coffee 4/12/24: Cubs 2, Mariners 4

These late games continue to be rough, as the Cubs are in a bit of a slide after taking the series from the Dodgers. Still, there are some interesting moments from last night's game.

Wicks whiffs
I'm not sure what kind of pitcher Jordan Wicks is. The industry has pegged him as a a low-variance back of the rotation starter who uses a great changeup to generate weak contact. This year, he looks different from the pitcher we saw last year. Of any pitcher who's thrown 10 innings this year, Wicks has the eleventh highest swinging strike rate, about the same as Tyler Glasnow. He got the second most swings and misses in his career last night with 16, 12 of those on his changeup. Unfortunately, he was wild last night, and his walk rate is now up to 12.3%, which is higher than any Cubs starter last year. It seems like Wicks and the Cubs are still learning how to optimize his pitch usage with his newly effective fastball. I believe there's more potential for Wicks than we thought going into the year, although it may take some growing pains for him to get there.

Drew Smyly's curveball
We've known that Drew Smyly's knuckle curveball is a unique pitch due to the way it moves, and Smyly has known that too--it's been his primary pitch for the last three seasons. This year, however, in a pure relief role, Smyly has ratcheted up his usage of the pitch and is now throwing it 62% of the time after throwing it 49% of the time last year. Despite the talk over the offseason about new pitch types developed at Driveline, Smyly has only thrown the curveball and sinker this year. He's throwing both pitches 1-2 MPH harder as a reliever as well. Batters are hitting just .111/.200/.111 against the pitch. Smyly has felt like one of the more reliable relievers the Cubs have had this year, and his dominant curveball is a big reason why.

Offensive woes
The Cubs offense has cooled off since the start of the year (although they've faced two good starters the last two games in Dylan Cease and Bryce Miller). I'm not too concerned about the offense as a whole, though I'm curious what's happening with Cody Bellinger. He's chasing significantly less than last year but missing more without the power to offset it. That will be something to keep an eye on, especially if Bellinger continues to hit third. It's good to see Michael Busch continue to hit well, though. He's been one of the best hitters in baseball according to the Statcast metrics, and he's been proving the Cubs right for believing in his bat.

Another late game tonight, but this one should line up well for the Cubs. Shōta Imanaga will go up against Emerson Hancock, who got roughed up the last time out against the Brewers. This would be a good opportunity for the Cubs to get back on track and bank another win during this West Coast trip.