2024 Cubs Preview: Five Numbers That Could Define the Season

Before the Cubs begin their season tonight in Texas and I kick off Cub of Coffee for the year, I wanted to share a season preview of sorts. Rather than give bold predictions for the year, I’ve picked five numbers that could tell us how the season will go.

1. Cubs’ record in one-run games

The Cubs’ first and most surprising offseason acquisition was their new manager, Craig Counsell. The team went 21-24 in one-run games last year, and their Pythagorean record was seven games better than their actual record, meaning they had the run differential of a 90 win team. While the Cubs didn't solely bring in Counsell for his strategic acumen, this season will serve as a significant test of his influence over the team's success in close games.

We don’t have a great way of measuring a manager’s impact. The most important parts of their job aren’t visible to the public, and it’s hard to evaluate their marginal decisions with the information available to us on a nightly basis. This leads us to try to identify places where we can see the effect of a manager’s decisions, and one of those is their record in one-run games. However, using a team’s record in one-run games as an indicator of managerial success has its problems, since having a good bullpen can also help a team win those games. Counsell has one of the best records in one-run games in history, but he won’t be able to rely on Josh Hader or Devin Williams this year.

The Cubs are not clear-cut division favorites and don’t have the star power to blow teams out frequently. They know they’ll need to win games on the margins, and they brought in one of the best managers in baseball to help them do just that. We’ll see how much of a measurable difference their most surprising upgrade will make.

2. Cody Bellinger’s wRC+

If I could magically know one player’s end-of-season slash line, it would be Cody Bellinger’s. I’m not sure what to make of Bellinger’s renaissance in which he produced a 134 wRC+ (21st out of all hitters with at least 400 plate appearances) but only an above-average xWOBA (112th out of those same hitters), which takes into account the exit velocity and launch angle of batted balls. It seems like the league didn’t know what to make of Bellinger either, given the contract he settled for. The safe bet is that his 2024 season will fall somewhere in between those two. Bellinger being a borderline MVP candidate again would go a long way to making this Cubs offense formidable, and would mean he would get the big payday he was expecting this offseason.

3. Michael Busch’s plate appearances against lefties

It wasn’t exactly an old-fashioned one-for-one challenge trade, but the deal that sent high-upside prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope to the Dodgers for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte was one of the more interesting moves of the offseason. The Cubs saw the need to shore up a weakness in their roster; over the last two seasons, Cubs first basemen had an 85 wRC+, second worst in baseball. If Busch produces even a league average offensive line he’ll be a big upgrade, but Jed Hoyer and his risk-averse front office didn’t give up quality prospects for an average first baseman. From reporting over the winter, it’s become clear that the Cubs view Busch as a potential force in the heart of their lineup. This number will show us if their belief is justified. It sounds like Busch will be given plenty of runway at the big-league level, but will also start the season in some sort of platoon. I feel confident that Busch can at least hit righties in the majors. Whether the Cubs trust him to handle lefties will go a long way to determining if they have their everyday first baseman of the future or a useful part-time player.

4. Shōta Imanaga’s home run rate

Which projection system do you believe regarding Shōta Imanaga? Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects Imanaga for an eye-poppingly high home run rate (the rate he’s projected for would be the fifth highest HR/9 since 2008, and that’s his median projection). FanGraphs’ ZiPS also projects Imanaga for a high home run rate, but thinks he can overcome that to be worth 3.5 fWAR, which would make him of the 15 best starters in baseball. It sounds like the Cubs align more closely with ZiPS, seeing Imanaga as a number 2 or 3 starter, while some in the industry think he’ll be a back-end starter or a reliever.

I feel confident that Imanaga will strike out plenty of batters. He has one of the more interesting fastball shapes in the game, combined with solid off-speed and breaking stuff, which is refreshing for a Cubs rotation which otherwise focuses on managing contact and hasn’t been in the top 15 in baseball in K% since 2019. While I still think Imanaga will give up his share of home runs, especially in the summer months in Wrigley, I’d bet on his pitching acumen to help him make the right adjustments to avoid allowing a historic number of homers. With a rotation that boasts more depth than upside at the moment, a breakout season from the Cubs’ biggest pitching acquisition of the year would play a big role in their hopes of winning the division.

5. Christopher Morel’s starts at DH

This is the year we will find out what kind of player Christopher Morel is. The plan going into the season seems to be Morel getting a large share of his playing time at the hot corner, which makes sense--the lineup looks much better if Morel can play third base well enough. If he can, the Cubs can squeeze in a better bat at DH. They could have Garrett Cooper and Michael Busch in the lineup at the same time, or later in the year, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bellinger, and Busch. Even if Morel is a below-average defensive third baseman, he mostly needs to be good enough to hold the position until the Cubs can find reinforcements (either internally or externally) later in the year. If he’s average or better, they have their third baseman. Nick Madrigal did an incredible job of learning how to play 3rd last season, but he shouldn’t be starting on a team with division-winning aspirations. Christopher Morel has the athletic ability to be exactly the type of player the Cubs need. He just needs to prove that he can translate that ability into on-field results.

I considered other numbers for this piece, including Héctor Neris’ saves (does Adbert Alzolay repeat his performance as the closer?), Miguel Amaya’s games caught (does he emerge as the catcher of the future?), and Cade Horton’s games started (does he force his way into the rotation sometime this year?), but the five I chose stood out to me as reliable indicators of success for this Cubs team. I’m looking forward to tracking them and writing about each game this season. It should be a fun one!